The parts shock, priced before it lands.
How much a motor book's average claim severity rises from the 2026 spare-parts shock, weighted by vehicle portfolio mix — built on Axxion's UAE motor claims experience.
Try it: the portfolio impact predictor
Enter the share of your insured vehicles sourced from each origin region. The model weights each region's parts inflation by that share, then scales by the parts share of the repair invoice — your expected severity increase updates live as you type. Spare parts are about half a repair invoice, so the parts rise is scaled to that share; frequency is held constant (a severity effect only).
| Origin region | Example brands | Parts inflation | Portfolio share % | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mitsubishi, Lexus | +12.5% | ||
| South Korea | Hyundai, Kia, Genesis | +13.1% | ||
| China | MG, Changan, Geely, BYD, Haval | +17.8% | ||
| Germany | Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW, Porsche | +10.5% | ||
| North America | Ford, Chevrolet, GMC, Jeep, Tesla | +13.1% | ||
| Rest of Europe | Land Rover, Volvo, Peugeot, Renault, Fiat | +11.8% | ||
| India | Tata, Mahindra | +18.1% | ||
| Total portfolio share | 100% | ✓ 100% | ||
Parts share of the repair invoice: % (industry benchmark 45–50%; editable. Labor and paint are the remainder.)
Weighted parts inflation +13.2% × parts share 50% = severity increase +6.6%.
1. Parts inflation by origin region
Each region's figure is the average modeled price increase across a basket of common collision parts (bumper, bonnet, fender, headlamp, windshield, mirror, condenser), against the pre-war baseline — the part's price just before the strait closed. Three things drive the pattern: cheap, bulky parts inflate most; Europe and North America carry an added shipping-diversion premium; and thin local stock adds a scarcity premium.
Higher-priced parts inflate least in percentage terms because a fixed shipping surcharge is a smaller share of a costly part. Axxion's own claims experience confirms the cost ordering: German makes carry roughly three times the repair cost of Japanese, Korean, or Chinese makes.
+13.1%North America
+11.8%Rest of Europe
+10.5%Germany
+17.8%China
+18.1%India
+13.1%South Korea
+12.5%Japan
2. What drives the part-level pattern
Price increase vs pre-war baseline, by part. Select a region.
Showing Japan. Within a region the part decides most of the increase: a windshield or bonnet fills container space that only a few units can occupy, so the per-container surcharge spreads over fewer, cheaper parts and lands as a larger percentage. Full part-by-model detail is in the part-by-model heatmap below.
3. Parts inflation by part and model
Axxion's claims data lets us go a level deeper than the regional averages, down to the individual part on individual models. Two forces set every figure: what the part is, and where the brand sources its parts. Big, low-value parts (glass and panels) rise most because sea freight is charged by container space, not by part value; small electronic parts rise least. Layered on top, brand origin shifts the whole picture: Chinese-brand parts rise most and German parts least in percentage terms. Each model's position tracks its actual average repair cost in Axxion's book, lower-cost models such as Corolla and Eado rise most in percentage terms, while higher-cost models such as Patrol, X5, and C-Class rise least.
| Japanese / Korean | German | Chinese | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Part \ Model | Corolla | Sunny | Civic | Elantra | Patrol | Pajero | Sportage | Tucson | C-Class | 3 Series | X5 | MG ZS | Eado | Coolray | Atto 3 |
| Front bumper cover | +16 | +16 | +16 | +16 | +11 | +11 | +14 | +14 | +11 | +11 | +10 | +20 | +24 | +20 | +20 |
| Bonnet (hood) | +17 | +17 | +17 | +17 | +11 | +11 | +14 | +14 | +11 | +11 | +10 | +21 | +24 | +21 | +21 |
| Front fender | +12 | +12 | +13 | +13 | +9 | +9 | +11 | +11 | +10 | +10 | +9 | +14 | +16 | +14 | +14 |
| Headlamp (halogen) | +9 | +9 | +9 | +9 | +7 | +8 | +9 | +9 | +10 | +10 | +10 | +12 | +13 | +12 | +12 |
| Headlamp (LED/ADAS) | +9 | +9 | +10 | +10 | +8 | +9 | +10 | +10 | +12 | +12 | +12 | +13 | +14 | +13 | +13 |
| Windshield | +18 | +18 | +19 | +19 | +11 | +11 | +16 | +16 | +14 | +14 | +13 | +21 | +25 | +21 | +21 |
| Door mirror (powered) | +7 | +7 | +8 | +8 | +6 | +7 | +7 | +7 | +8 | +8 | +8 | +10 | +11 | +10 | +10 |
| A/C condenser | +10 | +10 | +10 | +10 | +8 | +8 | +10 | +10 | +9 | +9 | +9 | +13 | +14 | +13 | +13 |
Inflation band: +6–8% +9–11% +12–14% +15–17% +18–20% +21–25%
Reading across a row shows how the same part moves by brand: Chinese columns run darkest, German and large Japanese SUVs lightest. Reading down a column shows the part effect within one model: glass and panels at the top, mirrors at the bottom.
What this means for insurers
- Price the shock by part first, then adjust for brand origin. The part decides most of the increase; the brand group shifts it up or down.
- Glass and large panels drive the rise across every brand. Windshields, bonnets, and bumpers sit at the top of every column, so front-end and glass-heavy claims rise most.
- Chinese-brand books face the steepest percentage rise and the tightest availability. Thin local stock turns a price problem into a longer-repair problem, lengthening cycle time, the span from accident to the car being returned.
- German-brand books show the smallest percentage rise. The pressure there is the added Europe-routing premium and scarce ADAS parts (the cameras, radars, and sensors behind features such as automatic braking and lane-keeping) rather than the headline percentage.
4. Method, evidence base, and limits
- Cost baseline from Axxion's claims experience. Region cost levels and the brand groupings are drawn from Axxion's UAE motor claims experience, its burning-cost book and unified repair-cost data, about 316,000 claims over 2023 to 2025.
- Built on Axxion's cost baseline and a verified shipping input. The region and part-level figures apply the shipping line's published per-container conflict surcharge (CMA CGM, March 2026) to Axxion's repair-cost baseline, part by part and model by model.
- Parts share is an industry benchmark. The parts share of the invoice uses collision-repair data, where labor (paint and non-paint) holds near 43% of the bill, leaving parts and materials as the balance. The default of 50% sits at the top of the supported range and is editable.
- Severity only, frequency held constant. The output is the increase in average repairable-claim cost. It does not change how often claims occur. Total-loss claims, glass-only claims, and claims with no imported parts behave differently and are not separated out here.
- Scope. Genuine manufacturer (OEM, original-equipment) parts. Aftermarket copies and electric-vehicle batteries sit outside this view.
Axxion Claims Settlement Services · 17 June 2026 · v0.1 · Verified input: CMA CGM Advisory #2, 1 March 2026.
Price against the forecast, prove it on the book
The predictor turns the parts shock into a number underwriting can price. The pilot proves the saving on real claims. Both run on Axxion's UAE motor claims data.